Fivethirtyeight Senate Forecast 2024. The five most competitive 2022 senate races, by their likelihood of deciding senate control according to the fivethirtyeight final deluxe forecast. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast.

In arizona, fivethirtyeight has trump up by 0.5 percent. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.